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School entry, educational attainment, and quarter of birth: a cautionary tale of a local average treatment effect
ABOUT BOOK
Studies of the effects of school entry age on short-run and long-run outcomes generally fail to capture the parameter of policy interest and/or are inconsistent because the instrument they use violates monotonicity, required for identification of a local average treatment effect. Our instrument addresses both problems and shows no effect of entry age on the educational attainment of children born in the fourth quarter who delay enrollment only because they are constrained by the law. We provide suggestive evidence that a waiver policy allowing some children to enter before the legally permissible age increases average educational attainment.We are grateful to Josh Angrist, Garry Barrett, Sandy Black, Jim Heckman, Caroline Hoxby, Claudia Olivetti, Daniele Paserman, two anonymous referees, the editors of this Journal, and participants in seminars at the Australian National University, Boston University, University of Chicago, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of California, Irvine, New York University, Pomona College, Singapore Management University, Tilburg University, the Tinbergen Institute, the University of Wollongong, Society of Labor Economists, and Econometric Society for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveat applies. Barua acknowledges funding under National Science Foundation American Educational Research Association grant REC-0634035. Lang acknowledges funding from the National Science Foundation under grant SEC-0339149. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funding agencies. (REC-0634035 - National Science Foundation American Educational Research Association; SEC-0339149 - National Science Foundation